I have been reading a groundbreaking report,  the world’s first comprehensive study on how to achieve a“Net-Zero by 2050: a roadmap for the global energy system“(referred to as NZE here in this link). It is produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA)

Why is this so important? Well, it is about the most dramatic change in our Energy Systems globally and emphasised that this decade is pivotal to reaching the targeted goal of net-zero by mid-century. Each decade will bring dramatic change to all of our lives. Our planet is under significant threat of global warming that will impact how we can live and perhaps survive.

This 2050 target is in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement, the foundations of global consensus to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5c. This requires nothing short of a total transformation of the energy systems, a complex “beast” that provides us with the basic energy sources we need to survive, live, build and grow.

The report sets out a cost-effective and economically productive pathway, resulting in a clean, dynamic and resilient energy economy dominated by renewables like solar and wind instead of fossil fuels. The report also examines key uncertainties, such as the roles of bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes in reaching net zero.

The Energy System is a complex Ecosystem.

To attempt such a study required a formidable team of experts, reference points and cross-agency collaboration. Just imagine bringing together all the aspects involved. This is an Ecosystem in its structure alone. It was required to draw in expert opinion and knowledge insights from specialists in economic outlook, electricity, biofuels, hydrogen, transport, industry, fossil fuel supply, electricity networks, data management, building, energy access, and societal behaviour innovation and job-related areas; all are needed to build this level of comprehensive understanding.

The eventual roadmap sets out more than 400 milestones to guide the energy transition journey to net-zero by 2050. The controversy is in the recommendations. These include, as of today, 2021, no new investments in fossil fuel supply projects ( oil wells, coal mines or gas fields) and no further final investments decisions in any new unabated coal plants. By 2035, there are no sales of new internal combustion engine cars. By 2040, the global electricity sector will need to reach net-zero emissions; in other words, reliant 100% on renewables or carbon captured fuel sources.

The major milestones in this pathway are shown here

These are staggering requirements.

For instance, existing unabated coal declines by 90% to just 1% of total energy use globally by 2050. Fossil fuel gas demand declines by 55%, whilst oil use declines by 75% by 2050.

Just stop and think of these needs to achieve and replace with viable alternatives—zero scopes for new fossil fuel developments.

We are not on the correct path to get to net-zero by 2050. The message is a requirement to get onto the right pathway trajectory. We need a fundamental step-change, a complete transformation of how we produce, store, transport and consume energy the world over.

Investment needs are equally massive, as is the ability and capacity to scale installations and make all the finite decisions such a complex energy system globally has built into. How can we achieve this transformation?

Ecosystem thinking and design

What I find missing in the report is a new way of thinking. We are caught in many past traditional collaborations between governments, agencies, institutions and enterprise. These work to a limited extent. In my view, we need a really different, higher connected level of design thinking. The application of Ecosystem thinking is an absolute need for such a complex transformation of the Energy System. Let me explain:

All businesses, institutions and research bodies need to explore innovation ecosystems and the platforms that drive them. In deliberately applying a connected design, they build through the relationships, interactions and networks that change the business proposition. By applying technology and building individual platforms, you can focus down but equally surface up knowledge, insights, and activities into a nest of ecosystems. Each chosen is driving growth specific opportunities and then placing them in their context but striving to set them in the broader environment.

This posting site explores ecosystems, alongside the delivery mechanisms of platforms, highlighting other collaborative methods and pushes towards the new need of today, to deliver a seamless total solution that provides customers or final energy consumers (in this case) in what they constantly recognize as needed change. This needed change is building what they are asking for in universal open energy access, clean technologies, consistency of supply at fair, inclusive and sustainable levels to solve their connected needs and contribute into behavioural change that recognizes that change has the broader purpose of protecting the environment and planet from harmful climate change. Ecosystem thinking becomes paramount.

A new mindset for entering the world of ecosystems

By entering the world of innovation ecosystems, there are significant differences in how design structures are set up and managed. To undertake such a massive scale of transformation, we need to maximise networks, relationships, build clusters and learn new ways to collaborate. Only in this mindset change can we manage the broader, more complex innovation challenges that any Energy System transformation needs to achieve.

So we do require a different way of thinking. This is more centred around innovation ecosystems that evolve and adapt in complexity. So this site and much of my work are dedicated to building the arguments and basic principles of design and thinking over Ecosystem Management for key transformations we are undertaking in our world today.

There is a lot to understand and explore to begin making this transformation in how we set about managing such a complex change. The trigger for me is a recognition of how we need to manage change.

Shaping and introducing innovative ecosystems is not easy. Still, it has enormous potential to transform competition and deliver on this ‘seamless experience’ that will be valued and recognized for its unique set of offerings. It can become a unique competitive positioning due to this connected ecosystem of collaborators. It offers an advantage to all engaged in its potential as it has diversity, dynamics, differentiation and distinctiveness in its design and delivery.

My view

I would argue to the producers of this report that behavioural changes starts by redesigning how we attempt such an energy transformation. Ecosystem thinking and design and the powerful use of technology solutions can provide the basic collaborative approaches to change. Collaboration needs to move from adversarial to cooperative. We need to enable learning in new ways; we need to share knowledge, insights and information and relate to each other for all our common goal of needing a sustainable future.

If we do not find a new way of managing, we fail before we begin, and here lies the missing aspect of the report, in my opinion. The mechanism of the new design to achieve and undertake the Energy transition comes from Ecosystem design thinking..

Do you, Dr Fatih Birol, and all those at the IEA and within their network agree?

 

The report:“Net-Zero by 2050: a roadmap for the global energy system“, produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA)